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Tracing Patterns

Each issue unpacks a major news story from the world of Russian security — tracing the relationships, trends, and deeper meaning behind it — so you can move beyond surface-level news and better understand the threats coming from Russia today.

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Featured Post

Clarity and ambiguity among the armed Chechen opposition

Things appear to be pretty quiet at the moment — both personally and politically. A quiet interlude, if you will. But that’s no bad thing, so I’ll try and enjoy it while it lasts! This week, I wanted to reflect on an interview given recently by several representatives of the Sheikh Mansur Battalion — the one fighting on Ukraine’s side in its war against Russia, not the identically named pro-Kadyrov unit. In particular, I want to consider what it says about the armed opposition’s plans for the...

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Happy Friday! I hope the sun is shining on you and giving you all the inspiration you need. And maybe some tasty tomatoes. They’re one of the best things about summer, after all, and it’s not too long before the winter takes them away. This week, I thought I’d offer a very brief portrait of the Erzi Battalion, a new unit launched in Ingushetia with the goal of waging Russia’s war in Ukraine. It won’t be particularly in-depth — more of a snapshot of what is known thus far. But it might serve...

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How is your summer going? After a couple of weeks away (from the newsletter, not the desk, though I did find time for a few days off), I’m waltzing back into your inbox with another issue of Tracing Patterns. I hope you missed me… This week, I want to look at the Chechen regime’s efforts to take control of donations for Palestine — and what it tells us about the current state of that regime. Specifically, I want to argue that it reveals something about the insecurities and weakness of the...

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Happy Friday! I hope this week is bringing you joy and you are either enjoying some rest or fired by inspiration. Both are equally acceptable! My attention has been a little scattered this week as I’ve flitted between projects and tasks. Also, I’ve allowed myself to be distracted by the joy of redesigning my office, so that I can comfortably use my second computer (designed for greater security). It’s the little things… I’ll be taking a break from the newsletter over August. I may drop in if...

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Happy Friday! A couple of weeks ago, Kabardino-Balkaria was back in the news for all the wrong reasons, after two unidentified men attacked police officers in Nalchik. The incident left one attacker dead, another wounded and in detention, and one civilian and one police officer injured. The head of Kabarbino-Balkaria, Kazbek Kokov, vowed that there would be "no mercy" for those who "violate the constitutional order." The incident is the latest reminder of the persistent instability that...

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Happy Thursday! I’m dropping into your inbox for a second time this week, which I hope you don’t mind! Adam Kadyrov, the son of Chechen leader Ramzan, just got married in a lavish three-day ceremony, so I thought I’d mark the occasion with some reflection on the Kadyrovs’ strategic use of marriage. With that in mind, here’s what you can expect in this issue: Adam Kadyrov takes centre stage Male-ordered bride Marriage as political strategy Interpreting network consolidation in Chechnya Click...

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Greetings! Is the world treating you well this week? I hope your work is inspiring and you’re managing to find time away from the office too! I delivered a big project last week — alas, one of the many interesting things I work on that I’m not at liberty to share publicly — and have had the luxury of a few days to catch up on things. These windows never last long, but I try to make the most of them while they’re here! In this week’s newsletter, I want to flesh out some ideas about the Chechen...

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Happy Friday! I hope your week has been filled with joy. It’s muggy where I am, which probably means — since my part of the world ain’t exactly renowned for its climate — it’s hot where you are too. Dr Mark prescribes lots of ice cream. Frankly, no matter what the weather! I’m someone who likes a big project. Or seven. I’m also someone who feels a little lost without one. Publishing my book therefore left a bit of a vacuum: I need something big to work towards, something that inspires and...

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Hello and welcome back! Today, I want to wrap up my mini-series on ‘how to start an insurgency.’ This week, the focus is oriented towards how small groups can take advantage of state weakness and, over time, coalesce into a more sustained form of resistance. There will be some overlap with the dynamics already discussed in the series, but the macro processes are very different. And this time — no points for guessing! — it will be Dagestan that takes centre stage. As such, this week, I’ll look...

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Happy Friday! Today, I'm continuing my mini-series on 'how to start an insurgency,' looking at lessons and mistakes from the North Caucasus' recent past. The theme this week is the radicalisation of movements – and it's Kabardino-Balkaria that provides our case study. With that in mind, here's what you can expect this week: The transformation from an overt to covert movement What happens when you cut off peaceful avenues of protest The lessons Russia refuses to learn View this post in your...