Introducing Below the Threshold


Good morning,

You may have noticed that, in the last few issues of Tracing Patterns, I've been talking about hybrid threats. I've examined comparisons between narratives around hybrid threats and the Global War on Terror, highlighted shortcomings of the term, and offered practical solutions to these issues.

Hybrid and grey-zone activity is something I plan to talk more about, because it's a highly topical issue that calls for a deeper understanding of actors and contexts. However, I want to treat this as separate from the issues I usually discuss here. With that in mind, I've launched a dedicated Substack newsletter called Below the Threshold. This will be the main platform for future reflections on this topic.

I published the first issue, From plausible deniability to unacknowledged activity, today. Each issue typically includes three assessments of recent developments, two analytic insights, and one concept, framework or resource. If you're interested, please subscribe!

I'll run Below the Threshold as a free trial until the end of January 2027. If there's enough interest, it will continue; if not, its coverage will move back into Tracing Patterns.

Tracing Patterns will continue, covering the same security issues as before.


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About me

I'm Dr Mark Youngman, an open-source investigator specialising in Russian security, and I run Threatologist. You can explore the free research and resources available in the Russian Security Research Lab (RSRL). If you need bespoke analysis or data — a dataset, literature review, or tailored report scoped to your question — check out my services.

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Tracing Patterns

Each issue unpacks a major news story from the world of Russian security — tracing the relationships, trends, and deeper meaning behind it — so you can move beyond surface-level news and better understand the threats coming from Russia today.

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