Pivot!


Hello! I hope your week is going splendidly!

I'm dropping in to your inbox today to explain some of the changes to the newsletter that I am implementing, starting…this week.

I have been thinking a lot about the newsletter’s goals and what people appear to find valuable. As a result, I’ll be making some changes to content and structure that I hope will lead to something you find even more valuable 🤞.

The TL;DR version

The thematic focus on Russian security issues will be the same, but the type of content will be different. The newsletter will also have a new name: Tracing Patterns.

The longer version

I appreciate you being here, and I don’t take your time for granted. That means I want the newsletter to deliver maximum value to you.

Recently, I have mainly been providing roundups of reporting. I know some of you find these useful, but they can be quite dry – there are only so many ways that you can say someone has been sentenced to prison! – and they don’t offer much opportunity for me to add value. Plus, I look at what you share and comment on, and media roundups aren’t what garners the most engagement.

As such, I’m ditching the roundup of developments. I’ll still be posting regularly on Bluesky, so you can follow me there if you still want that type of material (I've abandoned Twitter for obvious ethical reasons).

Instead, I’m going to focus on where I can leverage original data, add context to a story, or offer a unique perspective. The goal of each issue will be to take a particular story and unpack it, examining the relationships of those involved, analysing the underlying trends, exploring the broader context, and explaining the meaning of it all.

What this looks like will vary. It could be something like last week’s exploration of what the war means for the North Caucasus, or it could be a deep dive on a particular issue or group — as you will see this Friday. But I will try to develop a standard structure so the newsletter is easy to skim. This may require some experimentation to find out what works, so bear with me!

The core focus of the newsletter will remain the same. i.e. the story I pick will come from the world of Russian security, with a particular focus on terrorism & political violence, private military companies, and state-linked security services. And I’ll especially be trying to show the ways in which trend data and network analysis can help us understand these issues.

The new name for the newsletter, Tracing Patterns, is intended to reflect this focus. When you see this pop up in your inbox, you now know what it is!

If this pivot no longer appeals to you, then you’ll find the unsubscribe bottom at the end of the email. But I really hope you’ll stay!

113 Cherry St #92768, Seattle, WA 98104-2205
Unsubscribe · Preferences

Tracing Patterns

Each issue unpacks a major news story from the world of Russian security — tracing the relationships, trends, and deeper meaning behind it — so you can move beyond surface-level news and better understand the threats coming from Russia today.

Read more from Tracing Patterns

Happy Friday! The North Caucasus has become, sadly, a byword for instability. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has witnessed two wars between Chechnya and the federal centre (1994-1996 and 1999-2001), two jihadist state-building projects (the Caucasus Emirate and the Islamic State’s Caucasus Wilayah), and plenty of violence in between. Although organised insurgency collapsed in late 2017, there has been no shortage of anti-state violence since then. But it has yet to coalesce into...

Happy Friday! Did you miss me last week? I was supposed to be on holiday, which made a newsletter unlikely — and then my holiday got cancelled, which ironically made it even less likely. But if you can’t take a week off every now and then, you’re doing life all wrong! Now I’m back, and an important date is approaching: The release of my first (and only?) book! The Caucasus Emirate: Ideology, identity, and insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus will be hitting bookshelves on 20 May. Dance, tiny...

I have not, to be honest, had much time to think about much of anything this week: All of my time has been consumed by an urgent client project. As a result, this week’s newsletter is coming to you a little late, and quite possibly a little undercooked. Nevertheless, the story of the week kind of picks itself: An attack on the police in Chechnya and the authorities’ reaction to it. So, with due apologies for haste, here’s what you’ll find this week: An explanation of what happened An outline...